基于改进过白化的Mann-Kendall趋势检验法

Modified over-whitening process and its application in Mann-Kendall trend tests

采用Mann-Kendall(MK)方法对水文序列进行趋势性检验时,常因待检序列中含有显著高阶自相关成分或因一阶显著自相关剔除而产生趋势成分破坏,进而导致无法获得准确的趋势检验结果。为此,提出了基于改进过白化的MK趋势检验方法。改进过白化法主要通过集成回归变异—去趋势—方差变异等检验方法,采用分段过白化的处理手段实现趋势低损情况下的高阶显著自相关剔除,以保证MK趋势检验结果的精度。透过林家村、神木、赵石窑和横山站的案例研究结果,可发现改进过白化处理法可在尽可能小地破坏原序列趋势的基础上剔除序列的显著自相关性,基于改进过白化处理序列可得到更为精确的MK趋势检验结果。

When the Mann-Kendall（MK） method is used to detect the trend in serially correlated hydrological series, it is often difficult to obtain an accurate result, due to the influences by significant higher-order autocorrelation components or the trend damage in removing the lag-1 autocorrelation in the series. Aiming at this difficulty, this paper presents a hybrid MK test model combining a modified overwhitening（MOW） process and assembling the change point tests in regression and variance and the detrended methods to segment the original series and provide a set of suitable sub-series to over-whitening. In this model, the over-whitening is calculated in sections to remove the high-order autocorrelation while destroying the original trend component as little as possible. The test results of the runoff series at Linjiacun, Shenmu, Zhaoshiyao and Hengshan hydrologic stations indicate that the segmental overwhitening process can retain the trend change in the original series when eliminating its significant laghigh autocorrelation and ensure more accurate results in the MK trend test on over-whitened series.