基于多准则的城市雨洪模型不确定性分析方法

Uncertainty analysis of storm water management model using multi-criteria method

提出了一种基于多准则的城市雨洪模型参数不确定性分析方法。通过采用距离函数方法整合多个目标函数,该方法能够对洪峰、洪量和洪水过程等多个城市洪水过程要素进行综合考虑。将该方法应用于北京市大红门排水片区SWMM模型的不确定性分析,并与传统单准则方法的结果进行了对比及分析。结果表明,单一目标函数无法全面描述城市洪水特征;多准则方法在覆盖率相似的同时,不确定区域显著降低。在率定期,多准则相较于单准则不确定性区间的带宽减少了3.57 m3/s,偏差减少了3.04 m3/s;在验证期不确定性区间的带宽减少了3.38 m3/s,偏差减少了7.25 m3/s。而且其中值预报显著优于单准则方法。

A multi-criteria uncertainty analysis method for urban rainfall-runoff models is presented in this paper. By integrating multiple objective functions with a distance function, this method can simultaneously consider hydrological factors such as flood peak, flood volume and flood hydrograph. It is applied to the uncertainty analysis of a SWMM model, which is developed for analysis of the Dahongmen drainage area of Beijing. The results show that a single criterion cannot describe the characteristics of urban floods satisfactorily. Comparing with the traditional single criterion method, our multi-criteria method shows advantages not only in assessing prediction bounds, but providing median estimations when coverage rate is close. In calibration, it reduces the bandwidth of uncertainty bounds by 3.57 m3/s and the deviation by 3.04 m3/s; in validation, they are reduced by 3.38 m3/s and 7.25 m3/s respectively.