基于供给侧的天然气市场调节研究进展

Advances in the study of supply-side-based natural gas market regulation

合理规划天然气供给系统是天然气市场调节的重要组成部分,有利于推动天然气行业供给侧改革,实现天然气产业可持续发展。天然气供给系统与天然气价格及需求紧密相关,通过对国内外相关研究成果进行调研,总结了全球范围内天然气价格波动的长期及短期影响因素,归纳了天然气需求量波动影响因素及预测方法。详述了近年来天然气市场多主体分析的主要研究成果,并依据输入参数类型梳理了国内外天然气供给链系统规划模型的最新进展。最后结合天然气市场调节系列问题的研究现状,提出了从供给侧出发的天然气市场调节思路,以期对中国天然气市场有效调节提供参考。

Proper planning of natural gas supply system, as the important part of natural gas market regulation, is conducive to promoting supply-side reform and realizing sustainable development of natural gas industry. The natural gas supply system is closely related to the price and demand of natural gas. In this paper, the related research achievements at home and abroad were reviewed, the long-and short-term influencing factors of natural gas price around the world were summarized and the influencing factors and forecasting methods of natural gas demand were investigated. Then, the main research achievements of multi-agent analysis of natural gas market in recent years were described in detail and the latest progress of domestic and foreign planning models for natural gas supply chain systems were dissected according to the types of input parameters. Finally, based on the research status of natural gas market regulation, the idea of supply-sidebased natural gas market regulation was proposed so as to provide the reference for the effective regulation of China＇s natural gas market.