破解中国弃风现象的路径选择——兼析引入德国发电侧负电价机制的可能性研究

Path Selection of Solving Wind Abandon in China——the possibility of Introducing Negative Power Price Mechanism of Germany

短短十年,中国完成了新能源从起步到发展成为世界第一的过程。然而,我国新能源电在发展的过程中,出现了严重的弃风问题。本文利用中国＂三北＂地区弃风现象严重的7省2012-2016年的风电相关数据,采用面板回归模型研究德国发电侧电力市场的负电价机制引入中国的可能性。研究发现未来中国以风电为代表的新能源电上网电价有降低的趋势且有出现负电价的可能性。

China has completed the process from the beginning of new energy to the first place in the world.However, during the development of China＇s new energy electricity, there is a serious problem of wind abandoning for decades.This paper studies the possibility of introducing the Negative Power Price which exists in German＇s power generation side based onthe panel regression model by using wind power＇s data from 7 provinces in the ＂Three North＂ region of China from 2012 to 2016.The study finds thatthe electricity on-grid price of new power,which is represented by wind power,has a trend of decreasing and the possibility of Negative Power Price in the future.