宏观经济政策稳定性对进出口贸易影响研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

The impact of macroeconomic policy stability on import and export trade——An empirical analysis based on the model of trade gravitation

宏观经济政策影响一国进出口的贸易,为了研究这种影响程度,本文首先将中国进出口贸易分解为数量边际、价格边际以及扩展边际,研究发现,三元边际与经济政策稳定性之间存在正相关关系;接着,本文构建贸易引力模型,进行实证分析发现：（1）中国从20个主要贸易伙伴的进口增长主要来源于数量边际,价格边际和种类边际并没有显著增长;（2）稳定的经济政策更有利于促进进出口贸易,有利于提高价格边际、数量边际、拓展边际;（3）稳定的经济政策有利于降低固定贸易成本和可变贸易成本,从而有利于提高价格边际、数量边际和拓展边际。最后,根据得到的结论提出相关的建议,以期提高中国的进出口贸易。

Macroeconomic policies are of great influence on import and export trade of a country. In order to study the extent of this influence, this paper divides China＇s import and export trade into quantity margin, the price margin and the extensive margin. The results show that, there is a positive relationship between the three margins and the stability of economic policy. Then, empirical results fromtrade gravity model show that：（1） the growth of China＇s import from 20 major trading partners mainly comes from the margin of quantity, the price margin and the category margin have not increased significantly;（2） stable economic policy is more conducive to promoting import and export trade, and is conducive to improving the price margin, quantity margin and extensive margin.（3） a stable economic policy is conducive to reducing fixed trade cost and variable trade cost, which will help to improve the price margin, the quantity margin and the extensive margin. Finally, according to the conclusions, the papergives some relevant suggestions to improve China＇s import and export trade.