基于重标极差的径流时间序列长程研究分析

Study on Runoff Time Series Long Range based on Rescaled Range Analysis

现目前人类的不断活动导致气候加剧变化,使得水资源重新调整从而引发对水文序列的巨大影响。研究水文序列突变的演化规律,是当前水文工作中的重点课题。文章对径流时间序列在环境变化量展现出的非线性和动态特性,依据水文系统动力学结构理论,进行数学建模并计算,分析研究基于重标极差法对河川径流时间序列的长程相关性,预测其未来变化趋势,研究成果对水利工程的规划运行提供一定的理论基础。

At present, the activities of human being lead to climate change and make water resources readjusted, causing huge effects on hydrological series. To study the evolution laws of hydrological series abrupt change is the important subject in present hydrological works. According to the theory of hydrological system dynamic structure, this paper established mathematical model and conducted calculation for the nonlinear and dynamic characters shown by runoff time series due to the environmental change quantities, analyzed and researched the long-range correlation of rivers runoff time series with rescaled range method, forecasting the future change tendency, and the results will supply a certain theoretical basis for programming operation of the water conservancy projects.