地区雾霾舆论对空气质量有影响吗?——来自中国北方54个地级市月度数据证据

Does regional haze opinion affect air quality?

基于理论分析与假说,并以网络资源获取的主流媒体关于雾霾事件的月度报道量衡量舆情情况,采用2013年11月-2016年10月我国54个北方城市月度数据,从"量"和"速"两方面实证检验了短期内雾霾舆论对空气质量影响,并根据同步性对舆论效应检验结果进行了探讨。结果表明,舆论在短期内会改善地级市行政区域内的空气质量,"舆论效应"具体表现为:舆论对空气质量的影响效应存在"时滞",舆论形成后的第1、2个月内显著促进了空气质量改善,遏制了空气质量恶化速度,而在第3个月则存在空气污染报复性反弹风险。分城市组回归结果表明:人口规模、第二产业产值占比及人均GDP等维度的城市差异会影响舆论效应强弱,这与各地方城市应对舆论的态度差异有关。未来中国政府应强化舆论监督在大气污染治理中的作用。

Based on theoretical analysis and hypothesis,using China＇s northern city monthly haze opinion and AQI data from November 2013 to October 2016,we empirically tested the impact of haze opinion on air quality in the short term and discussed the effect of public opinion test results from the two aspects of ＂ quantity＂ and ＂speed＂. The results show that the public opinion improved the air quality in the short term within the administrative area of cities. Public opinion effects were as follows： there was a time lag for effect of haze public opinion,but it improved air quality and curbed the deterioration rate of air quality within 1-2 months after the formation of public opinion,and the risk of rebound in air quality in third months had emerged. The urban group regression results showed that population size,the proportion of second industry output value and the per capita GDP influenced the effect of public opinion. This was related to the attitude of local cities to respond to public opinion.