货币一体化政策的时空分异研究——基于欧元区国家异质性的实证分析

Temporal and Spatial Differentiation of the Monetary Integration Policy——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Euro Heterogeneity

欧元区的经济动荡需要重新考量货币一体化的政策效果。文章基于创新要素的内生增长模型对欧元区成员国的经济行为进行模拟,并利用其经济发展数据,对政策效应进行评估。结果发现:统一的货币政策将促进区内国家的分工,在经济环境较好时,实力较弱国家会因为资本流入而获得经济发展;当经济环境恶化时,资本回流将导致国家间经济分化。因此,选择合适的一体化政策、保护并扶持战略性产业、提高本国经济实力是实现区域合作的重要前提。

The European economic crisis on the euro zone requires us to reconsider the effect of the monetary integration policy. This article is based on the endogenous growth model（ RBR） of the innovative elements to simulate the economic behavior of the euro zone with the member countries in the monetary integration,and by using the economic related data we estimate the dynamic policy impact. The results show that： the monetary integration will widen the gap between the different countries within the zone. In the case of good external economic environment with the capital adequacy,the monetary integration will promote the economic development of various countries and the gap will be narrowed; when the external economic environment is deteriorating with the capital shortage,the difference will be greater and the economic differentiation among countries will increase. Accordingly,to select appropriate integration policies,protect and support strategic industries,and enhance theireconomic strength are important prerequisites for regional cooperation and integration.