长江经济带低碳协调发展:基于乘数效应分解的研究

Low carbon coordinated development in the Yangtze River Economic Zone:Research based on multiplier effect decomposition

基于多区域投入产出模型对长江经济带上、中、下游地区最终需求的经济和碳排放乘数进行分解分析。结果表明:2002—2010年三地区中消费的增加值区域内乘数最大而碳排放乘数几乎都是最小,出口的增加值区域内乘数最小,调出中间品的碳排放区域内乘数最大;资本形成以及调出中间品具有相对较大的增加值和碳排放溢出乘数,农林牧渔业及大部分服务业部门的区域内增加值乘数较大而碳排放乘数较小,增加值溢出乘数较大的部门多属于制造业,碳排放溢出乘数较大的部门多为能源密集型部门。扩大内需特别是消费的比重、调整出口结构、改善能源密集型部门的碳排放效率、提升各地区之间的服务业贸易往来,是促进长江经济带低碳协调发展的有效途径。

Decomposition analysis of economic and carbon emission effects of final demand in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is made by using the multi-regional input-output model. The results indicate that the value added intraregional multiplier（ VAIM） of consumption is the largest but its carbon emission intraregional multiplier（ CEIM） is almost the smallest among the final demand categories,the VAIM of export is the smallest and the CEIM of intermediate used products by other domestic regions（ IUPODR） is the largest in the three reaches in 2002-2010. The value added intraregional effects（ VASEs） and CESMs of capital formation and IUPODR are relatively large. In the three reaches,agriculture and most of the service sectors has larger effect on intraregional value added but smaller effects on intraregional carbon emissions. Most of the sectors with larger VASMs belong to manufacturing industry,while most of the sectors with larger CESMs are energy intensive sectors in the reaches. Therefore, enlarging the share of domestic demands especial consumption in total final demands,adjusting the structure of exports,improving the carbon emission efficiency of energy intensive sectors,increasing the service trade among the reaches are effective ways for the lower carbon and coordinated development in Yangtze River Economic Zone.