基于改进G1法—集对分析的水电EPC项目风险评价

Risk assessment of hydropower EPC project based on improved G1 method set and pair analysis

为分析水电EPC项目风险状况,运用集对分析法对风险进行评价。从管理、政治、经济、技术、不可抗力五个方面建立评价指标体系,采用指数标度的改进G1法对指标进行赋权;构建五元联系数评价模型,计算集对势、分析态势等级,确定风险状况;以陕西省某水电站为例进行分析,结果表明综合风险等级为中等,且风险态势为同势61级,并制定相应控制措施,研究结果能为水电EPC项目风险管理提供决策支持。

In order to analyze the risk situation of hydropower EPC project,the set pair analysis method is applied to evaluate the risk. From the management,politics,economy,technology,force majeure,this five aspects of EPC hydropower project risk,establish the evaluation index system,the index weighting based on improved G1 index scale method; construction of five element connection number assessment model of project risk is conducted,calculate set pair potential,analyse trend level,determine the risk status; taking the EPC project of a hydropower station in Shanxi as an example,the results show that the risk level is moderate,and the risk level is the same level 61 levels,and the corresponding control measures are worked out. The research results can provide decision support for risk management of hydropower EPC project.