基于故障数据的某型导弹失效风险排序方法

Method of Failure Risk Ranking of Missile Components Based on Fault Data

以某型导弹寿命预测为研究背景,按专业将该型导弹分为弹体、动力系统、电子电气设备等8个分系统,采用FTA-FMMEA方法分别对其进行失效模式和机理分析,并引入严酷度等级和失效模式发生概率等级,构建失效模式风险评价模型,对导弹各分系统的失效危害度进行定量分析。根据服役期间导弹现场失效数据并结合先验信息,提出了基于Bayes估计的各失效模式发生概率求取方法,给出了导弹各分系统的失效排序,确定了导弹薄弱环节,为后续贮存寿命预估提供依据。

In the background of the study on a certain type of missile, according to the professional, the missilewas divided into eight subsystem, such as projectile, engine systems, electronic and electrical equipment, etc.Adopting FTA and FMMEA methods, the failure modes and mechanisms were analyzed. The severity level andoccurrence probability level of failure modes were introduced to construct the failure mode risk assessmentmodel, the failure hazardous degree of the missile＇s sub-systems was quantitatively analyzed. According tothe missile site failure data during service and combined with prior information, and based on the Bayesian es-timation, the calculating method of occurrence probability level of each failure mode was put forward, the fail-ure sorting sequence of missile sub-systems was given and the weak links were determined, and providing sup-port for the subsequent prediction of storage life.