国际贸易会恶化全要素能源效率吗——基于中国33个工业行业的经验分析

Does international trade degrade total-factor energy efficiency: an empirical analysis in China

提高能源效率是我国当前实现"保增长"和"绿色发展"的必然选择。与此同时,在经济全球化的推动下,国际贸易正在向着更宽的范围和更深的层次日益推进。因此,深入探索国际贸易如何影响能源效率这一课题,对我国当前具有重大的战略意义。本文在Tone(2003)的基础上引入规模收益可变的假设,通过MATLAB软件测算了我国33个工业行业2003—2014年期间的全要素能源效率,并利用STATA软件对国际贸易与能源效率关系的面板数据进行分析,结果显示:(1)Hausman检验发现,固定效应模型优于随机效应模型,且优于工具变量模型;(2)行业国际贸易总量、出口总量和进口总量与能源效率之间均不具有显著的相关关系;(3)中间产品进口总量和中间产品出口总量与能源效率之间均具有显著的相关关系,前者呈正相关关系,后者呈负相关关系,而其他非中间产品进口量和出口量与能源效率之间相关关系不显著;(4)能源价格、研发投资和环境规制变量均不具有统计显著性,但非国有产权结构和煤炭在能源消费中所占比重均具有较高的统计显著性,前者与能源效率呈正相关关系,后者呈负相关关系。这意味着,我国中间产品出口落入"污染天堂假说"陷阱,而中间产品进口却有助于提升能源效率。因此,要密切重视中间产品出口行业的能源效率提升,提升环境治理力度,加大在节能减排领域的研发投入,同时继续推进所有制改革,并积极推动能源消费向清洁能源升级。建议未来关于国际贸易对我国能源效率影响的相关研究,继续沿着将国际贸易进行细分的研究方向,即分解为中间产品贸易与资本品贸易和最终产品贸易等细分维度,来探讨这一问题。尤其是要进一步关注资本品进口与中间产品出口对我国能源效率的交叉作用。

Improving energy efficiency is an inevitable choice for China to achieve‘maintaining growth’and‘green development’at present. In the meantime,driven by economic globalization,international trade is increasingly moving forward at a much deeper level and with a wider scope. Therefore,in-depth exploration of how international trade affects energy efficiency is of great strategic significance to china. Based on Tone（ 2003）,this paper introduces the hypothesis of Variable Returns to Scale（ VRS）,and calculates the total-factor energy efficiency of China’s 33 industrial sectors from 2003-2014 by using MATLAB software,and then makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between international trade and total-factor energy efficiency using panel data. The results show that：（1）Hausman test found that the fixed effects model is better than the random effects model and the tool model;（2） there is no significant correlation between energy efficiency and total amount of international trade,total exports and total imports of the industry;（3）there is a significant positive correlation between energy efficiency and the total imports of intermediate products and the total exports of intermediate products. The former showed a positive correlation,while the latter a negative correlation. There is no obvious correlation between energy efficiency and the other non-intermediate imports and exports;（4） energy prices,R＆D investment and environmental regulation variables are not statistically significant. But the non-state ownership structure FDI and coal in the proportion of energy consumption has a higher statistical significance. The former has a positive correlation with energy efficiency,while the latter a negative correlation. This means that China ’s exports of intermediary products have fallen into the trap of ‘pollution haven ’hypotheses,while imports of intermediate products help to promote energy efficiency. Therefore,we must pay close attention to energy efficiency improvement in the export of intermediate products,enhance environmental governance and increase R＆D investment in the field of energy conservation and emission reduction,while further promoting the reform of ownership and clean energy consumption. In view of the study results,it is necessary to distinguish intermediate products from capital goods and final consumer goods. Particularly,we should pay more attention to the cross action between the imports of capital goods and the intermediate products.