产业协同集聚、贸易开放与雾霾污染

Co-agglomeration,trade openness and haze pollution

随着经济全球化和国际分工的日益深入,生产性服务业与制造业的协同互动已成为世界经济发展的重要趋势,也是中国打造高端制造业与现代服务业的必由之路。本文基于生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚的研究视角,构建空间计量模型和面板门槛模型,实证考察了产业协同集聚、贸易开放与雾霾污染的内在联系。研究显示:协同集聚对雾霾污染存在明显的改善作用;在剔除了加工贸易后,贸易开放对改善雾霾污染发生实质性的转变;协同集聚与贸易开放交叉项对雾霾污染存在负向影响,即贸易开放通过提高协同集聚水平从而间接地制约了集聚负外部性对雾霾污染的影响;贸易开放与协同集聚存在消化吸收的过程,在初期对雾霾污染的抑制作用不显著,但随着时间的推移作用变得显著;贸易开放与制造业生产性服务业与协同集聚对雾霾污染的作用因两者发展的不匹配而存在门槛效应,在不同的贸易开放下,协同集聚对地区雾霾污染的影响差异较大。因此,为了缓解日益严峻的雾霾污染问题,需要秉持双轮驱动的发展战略,推动生产性服务业与制造业的融合与渗透,破除产业发展中的棘轮效应;调整粗放型的外贸增长方式,推动外贸由规模型扩张向质量效益型转变,引领贸易结构走深加工和高附加值路线;破除贸易开放与生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚的门槛效应,实现两者的匹配发展。

With the deepening of economic globalization and international division of labor,the co-operation of producer services and manufacturing has become an important trend in global economic development. It is also the only way to build the high-end manufacturing industry and modern service industry in China. This paper,based on the perspective of co-agglomeration between producer services and manufacturing,applies spatial econometric model and panel threshold model to analyze the relationships among co-agglomeration,trade openness and haze pollution. The results show that co-agglomeration can obviously improve the haze pollution.After deducting the outsourcing trade,the relationship between trade openness and haze pollution has a substantial change. The cross term of co-agglomeration and trade openness has negative effects on haze pollution. That is to say,trade openness can indirectly affect the effect of the negative externalities of industrial agglomeration on haze pollution by increasing the level of co-agglomeration. The coagglomeration level has not immediately visible positive effect on haze pollution,needing for an absorption and digestion process at the beginning,however,this turns to have a positive effect as time goes by. The influence of haze pollution from co-agglomeration and trade openness has the threshold effects,due to the mismatch of co-agglomeration and trade openness. Under the different level of trade openness,the co-agglomeration has heterogeneity to the region haze pollution. In order to solve the haze pollution problem,it is helpful to uphold the principle of ‘wheel drive development strategy’,promote the deep integration of co-agglomeration,and get rid of the‘ratchet effect’in industrial development. It is important to adjust the extensive growth mode of foreign trade from scale expansion to quality efficiency and lead the trade to take the deep processing and high value-added route. In addition,it is necessary to break through the ‘threshold effect’of trade openness and co-agglomeration,and achieve the matching development of them.