小样本条件下装备寿命分布研究

Study on Life Distribution of Equipment under Small Sample Conditions

对于长期处于贮存环境的装备,针对其小样本条件下寿命分布无法确定的问题,提出在拟合择优法的基础上结合模糊综合评价的方法来判断装备的寿命分布。该方法对常用的几种寿命分布进行极小χ~2估计和拟合优度检验,筛选较优的寿命分布模型作为先验分布,再利用模糊贝叶斯方法计算各分布的后验概率,从而确定装备最佳的寿命分布函数。通过实例分析,该方法确定的寿命分布能较好地反映装备可靠性变化规律,具有较好的工程实践意义。

For the long-term storage environment equipment,in order to solve the fitting problem of equipment life distribution under small sample conditions,the method of fuzzy comprehensive assessment based on fitting preference method is proposed to determine the life distribution of equipment. Through the use of minimumχ~2 estimation and goodness fit of test on several commonly used life distributions,the optimal lifetime distribution model is screened as prior distribution and the posterior probability of each distribution is calculated by fuzzy Bayesian method to determine Equipped with the best life distribution function. Through the example analysis,the life distribution determined by this method can better reflect the variation rule of equipment reliability and has good engineering practice meaning.