多重不确定因素影响的高端装备研制任务仿真建模

Simulation modeling of high-end equipment development task influenced by multiple uncertainty factors

针对高端装备研制任务影响因素多、不确定性大、网络结构复杂等特点,采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法模拟其执行过程,用以估算研制任务的工期、成本、返工次数、失败率等。综合考虑子任务的工期和成本的不确定性、子任务之间的各种关系以及执行过程中的自环、返工迭代、重叠、失败、学习效应等,改进资源冲突处理规则,基于设计结构矩阵建立仿真模型,并实现了仿真算法。以某无人机研制任务为例进行应用研究,对仿真输出的工期、成本、返工次数、失败率等数据进行分析,并与相关文献中的数据进行比较。

The development task of high-end equipment has many characteristics,for example,the number of influencing factors is huge,the uncertainty is great and the network structure is complex.In order to deal with this problem,a Monte Carlo simulation method is used to simulate the execution process of the task network.It can estimate the duration,cost,rework times,and failure rate.Considering the uncertainty of the duration and the cost of subtasks,the relationship between the subtasks and the self-loop,rework iteration,overlap,failure and learning effect in the implementation process,our method improves the rules of resource conflicts.Based on the design structure matrix,the simulation model is established.After that a simulation algorithm is implemented.The data of the development task of an uninhabited combat aerial vehicle is studied.Then this paper analyzes the data such as the duration,cost,rework times,and failure rate of the simulation output.Finally,the data is compared with the data in the related literature,which shows that our method works well in this case.