析日本安倍政府对朝鲜半岛核问题的政策

An Analysis of the Abe Government's Policy toward the DPRK Nuclear Issue

安倍政府朝核政策的战略目标是遏制朝鲜推进核与导弹开发,力争消除朝核威胁;推动修宪扩军,力图"摆脱战后体制";增强日美同盟,提高日本在同盟中的地位,加深军事关系的紧密性。安倍政府从内外两个维度实施该战略,对内增加国防经费,试图拥有和完善"预防机制+攻击机制"的双重防卫战略,即升级和强化目前的导弹防御系统,打造陆海空自卫队一体化弹道导弹防御系统,在解禁集体自卫权的前提下拥有对敌先发制人的攻击能力。对外采取"加强地区威慑力+开展国际外交+增强联合国安理会制裁强度"层递式结构应对朝核威胁。但是在国内外各种因素的限制下,安倍政府不仅难以实现其朝核政策的目标,反而会给地区局势带来负面影响。

The Abe government' s policy toward the DPRK nuclear issue has three strategic goals: first,to curb DPRK nuclear and missile development so as to eliminate the nuclear threat from DPRK; second,to amend the constitution and strengthen its military forces in order to get rid of the post-war situation; third,to enhance the Japan-US alliance and improve Japan' s position in the alliance. The Abe government has implemented the strategy from both internal and external dimensions.The Abe government in the internal increases the military budget,trying to have and improve the dual defense strategy of "prevention mechanism + attack mechanism". In other words,by upgrading and strengthening the missile defense system to build land,sea and air self-defense integrated ballistic missile defense system,Japan can have the pre-emptive strike capability in the premise of the lifting collective self-defense. In the external,the Abe government adopts progressive structure of "strengthening regional deterrence + intensifying international diplomacy + enhancing UN Security Council sanctions"to deal with DPRK nuclear threat. However,under the restriction of various factors from home and abroad,it is difficult for the Abe government to achieve the objectives on the DPRK nuclear issue; instead,it will have negative influence on regional situation.