基于AHP的克孜勒苏河流域生态安全评价及预测

Ecological Security Assessment and Prediction of Kizilsu River Watershed Based on AHP

为了更加高效地改善克孜勒苏河流域生态安全环境,基于AHP技术的支持,选取研究区域经济生态安全系统、自然生态安全系统、社会生态安全系统中的15个指标构建生态安全评估指标体系,对克孜勒苏河流域2008-2020年的生态安全进行评价与预测。结果表明:该流域生态安全处于上升状态,增长情况并不明显。预测至2020年克孜勒苏河流域生态安全将持续处于较安全状态,但是并未达到安全状态。从戈壁产业和天然草场保护方面提出对策建议。

In order to improve the ecological security environment in the Kezilsu River watershed more effectively,based on the support of AHP technology,15 indicators including the economic ecological security system,the natural ecological security system and the social ecological security system are selected to construct the ecological security assessment index system. The system evaluates and predicts the ecological security of the Kizilsu River watershed from 2008 to 2020.The results show that the ecological security of the watershed is on the rise,but the growth is not obvious. It is predicted that ecological security in the Kizilsu River watershed will continue to be safer by 2020,but it has not reached a safe state. This paper proposes countermeasures for the protection of the Gobi industry and natural pastures.