基于PCA的复杂电网安全风险评价研究

Study on Safety Risk Evaluation of Complex Grid Operation Based on Principal Component Analysis

电网运行安全风险评价是预防和改善复杂电网运行安全状况的重要依据。从微观角度出发,运用主成分分析法(PCA),构造了一种基于数理统计的综合评估函数,并筛选出对复杂电网运行安全有较大影响的主要指标,结合统计软件计算出区域电网运行过程安全风险的综合评估值,以反映不同区域电网运行的安全风险状况。应用实例分析表明:从微观角度运用PCA方法评估电网运行过程的安全风险是可行的,有利于避免评价过程的主观随意性。在影响因素较多、环境复杂的条件下,能够优选出对电网运行整体安全性影响较大的主要因素,以便更好地开展电网运行安全的预防和控制。分析结果与实际情况基本一致。

The security assessment of power system is an important basis to prevent and improve the safety risk condition of power grid operation. The synthetic assessment function was established and the main indexes screen out from microcosmic angle by PCA,which affects power grid operation safety. With the help of Statistical Program,the comprehensive operation safety evaluation values for different region power grid were calculated,and their safety conditions were obtained. The application example shows that it is feasible to evaluate power grid safety risk with PCA from microcosmic angle,which avoids subjective random problem. In a complex environment,it can distinguish the effects of main factors on the whole security risk of power grid operation system. The evaluation results consistent with the reality.