我国危险化学品事故灰色残差马尔科夫预测模型的建立及应用研究

Establishment and Application of Gray Residual Markov Prediction Model for Hazardous Chemicals Accidents

随着工业发展和社会进步,人们对化工产品的依赖性越来越强,导致危化品事故频发,因此建立危化品事故预测模型并对其进行预测具有重要意义。以2006—2014年我国发生的危化品事故起数为原始样本,建立预测模型,并以2015年我国危化品事故实际起数为验证样本,对所建立的预测模型的预测精度进行了验证。结果表明:所建立的危化品事故灰色残差马尔科夫预测模型精度合格,可用来预测我国危化品事故的发展趋势。

With the development of industry and society,more and more chemical products are relied on,resulting in frequent accidents of hazardous chemicals.Thus,it has important significance to establish the prediction model for hazardous chemical accidents and accident prediction.This paper takes the number of hazardous chemical accidents in China from 2006 to 2014 as the original sample to establish the gray residual Markov prediction model.Firstly,the paper takes the accident number from 2006 to 2014 to establish the prediction model,and then verifies the model with the actual accident number in 2015 as the validate sample.The result shows that the model is qualified and can be used to predict the occurrence trend of hazardous chemical accidents in China.