坦克行进间炮耳轴倾斜角预测模型研究

Prediction Model Research of Inclined Angle of Tank Gun Trunnion on the Move

针对坦克行进间具有振荡性的火炮耳轴倾斜角数据,提出了一种改进的灰色预测模型。提出了一种数据变换方法,能够将原始序列处理为正数单调序列,使其符合灰色模型对建模数据的需求;利用小区间的矩形面积和重构模型背景值,并在基于无偏性的准则下研究了重构背景值中的参数与模型参数之间的关系,提出了一个背景值中参数的直接表达式;利用两种参数的关系,构建了改进的灰色微分方程,通过求解得到了优化的预测公式。经过实例分析,改进模型预测结果的平均相对误差为3.53%,能够较为准确地预测炮耳轴倾斜角的变化情况。

Focused on oscillatory data of inclined angle of the tank gun trunnion on the move, an modified grey prediction model is proposed. Firstly, the original sequence is transformed into positive and monotonic one to match modeling requirements of grey model by a new method of data transformation.Secondly, the traditional model background value is replaced by sum of area of rectangles in short intervals, while based on the criterion of unbiasedness, the relationship between the parameter of thereconstructed background value and modeling parameters is studied. Then a direct expression of the parameter of background value is put forward. Finally, the improved grey differential equation is constructed and hence an optimized prediction formula is shown. Through example analysis, the average relative error of prediction results of the modified model is 3.53 %, which indicates a fact that the modified model is able to accurately predict changes of inclined angle of the gun trunnion.