贵州省固定资产投资与经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Fixed Assets Investment and Economic Growth in Guizhou Province

贵州省经济增长在一定程度上表现出对固定资产投资的依赖。通过向量误差修正模型实证分析贵州省1978—2016年间固定资产投资与经济增长的关系,研究表明,贵州省固定资产投资与经济增长之间存在协整关系;贵州省固定资产投资波动能够很大程度上影响经济增长波动,而贵州省固定资产投资波动主要源于自身。脉冲响应分析则发现,与贵州省固定资产投资对经济增长的影响相比,贵州省经济增长对固定资产投资的影响更明显。进一步通过格兰杰因果关系检验发现,贵州省经济增长能够带动固定资产投资增加,而固定资产投资并不能有效促进经济增长。贵州省需要深入推进供给侧改革,优化投资结构,提高投资效率,增加有效投资,使投资和经济增长良性循环。

The economic growth of Guizhou province depends on investment to some extent. Based on Guizhou's 1978-2016 data,the relationship between fixed assets investment and economic growth is empirically analyzed using vector error correction model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two. Fixed assets investment fluctuations stem mainly from its own and it is able to largely affect the fluctuation of economic growth. The impulse response analysis finds the impact of economic growth on fixed assets investment is more apparent than that of fixed assets investment on economic growth. In addition, according to the Granger causality test, economic growth can spur fixed assets investment in the province, which, however, does not effectively promote the economic growth. In order to bring about a virtuous cycle of investment and economic growth, Guizhou needs to deepen its supply-side reform, optimize investment structure, and increase effective investment.