基于因子分析的我国金融风险影响因素探究

Research on the influence factors of Chinese financial risks based on factor analysis

本文在有关金融风险预警研究的基础上,结合我国具体国情,分别从宏观经济、微观经济两个层面选取16个与金融风险相关的先行指标,建立中国金融风险压力指数。采取Granger因果检验的方法对这些指标进行筛选,选出预警能力较强的7个指标。最后,搜集2007-2017年的月度数据,对这7个预警指标进行因子分析,得出影响我国金融风险的主要因素。

Based on the previous studies of early warning on financial risks, combined with China’s specific conditions, this article selected 16 indicators related financial risk from two aspects of macro economy and micro economy, and then established a Chinese financial risk pressure index. Utilizing the Granger Test method, the article selects 7 indicators of strong early warning ability. Finally, the article carries on the factor analysis to these 7 early warning indicators, obtains the main factors that cause the financial risks in China, and gives corresponding policy recommendations on this basis.