我国交通事故时空分布规律及其影响因素研究

Research on the temporal and spatial distribution of traffic accidents in China and its influencing factors

针对2001-2016年全国交通事故的相关指标数据,采用统计描述方法进行时间序列研究和截面数据分析。结果显示全国交通事故的绝对指标整体呈下降趋势,但事故严重程度却在逐渐加深。其中,东部沿海地区的事故发生次数较多且聚集性较高,尤其是津皖鄂黔琼五省事故严重程度尤其需要重点关注。文章选取4个影响因素并利用多元线性回归方法对交通事故死亡人数进行了预测。回归结果表明,民用汽车拥有量、GDP指标与死亡人数之间具有显著性的线性影响。最后提出交通事故死亡人数预测模型,为各相关部门提供可行性建议以减少交通事故的发生率。

Based on the relevant indicators of traffic accidents from 2001 to 2016 in China, the paper uses statistical description methods to conduct time series studies and cross-sectional data analysis. The results show that the absolute indicators of traffic accidents show a downward trend as a whole, but the relative indicators show the severity of the problem has gradually deepened. In particular,the eastern coastal areas have more occurrences and higher clustering, and the severity of accident in the five provinces of Tianjin, Anhui, Hubei, Guizhou and Hainan is particularly severe. In this paper, four influencing factors are selected and multiple linear regression method are used to predict the death toll of traffic accidents. The results of regression analysis show that there is a significant linear effect between the number of civilian cars, GDP indicators and the number of deaths. Finally, the prediction model of traffic accident death is put forward according to the analysis result and provide feasibility advice to relevant departments to reduce the incidence of traffic accidents.