开放经济条件下中国的最优货币政策规则——基于DSGE模型的模拟分析

China's Optimum Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economy Conditions——Simulation Analysis Based on DSGE Model

本文通过建立开放经济DSGE模型,对比分析国内外冲击下不同货币政策对应的经济波动方式和社会福利损失,并构建"经济波动相关性指数"对中国货币政策的实施情况进行经验分析。主要结论包括:首先,无论是在国内冲击还是国外冲击下,理论上都存在着同一种最优货币政策,且不同货币政策的福利效果有所差别;其次,从全样本时段来看,设定中国实施的货币政策为盯住汇率制时相关性指数经验值最高,但分样本时段的研究显示中国货币政策的实施存在一定的时变性,体现相机抉择的特点。

The author of this paper establishes an open economy DSGE model to compare the economic volatility pattern and social welfare loss corresponding to different monetary policies in domestic and international shocks, and constructs an ＂＇economic volatility correlation index＂ for the empirical analysis of the implementation of China＇s monetary policy. The main conclusions include： first, whether the domestic shocks or foreign shocks, there is theoretically the same optimal monetary policy, and the welfare effects of different monetary policies vary; second, in the total sample period, the correla- tion index of China＇s monetary policy with pegged exchange rate system is the highest, but the study of sub-sample peri- od shows that the implementation of China＇s monetary policy changes to. some extent, which reflects the characteristics of discretion.