城镇化进程中教育人力资本收敛性的门槛效应与空间效应:理论假说与现实证据

The Threshold Effect and Spatial Effect of Education Human Capital in the Process of Urbanisation: Theoretical Hypothesis and Realistic Evidence

利用1996—2014年的省级面板数据，基于经济收敛假说，检验教育人力资本的收敛特征，利用面板门槛回归与空间计量的方法，探讨教育均衡发展中的门槛效应与空间效应。研究表明：我国教育人力资本存在长期增长趋势，利用变异系数法测得平均受教育年限的离差在样本期内呈下降趋势，省域教育发展满足a收敛条件；初期教育投入与后期增长的反向运动趋势，表明教育人力资本在落后省域的后期增长率更高，并在样本期内不断逼近发达省域，从而满足绝对与条件B收敛的特征；东、西部地区的教育人力资本相对中部地区更为离散，东、中、西三大区域并不具备组内差距缩小而组间差距扩大的俱乐部收敛特征；城镇化对教育人力资本的非线性影响仅存在单一门槛值，当人口城镇化率越过0．845的拐点后，区域劳动力转移对教育收敛的促进作用可达91．5％。人力资本收敛在地理空间上的聚集态势显著，但局域自相关性却存在显著差异，教育人力资本收敛对邻近省域的空间辐射效应则高于静态收敛。

The empirical analysis shows there exists a long-term growth trend in education human capital, the development of education satisfies the condition of alpha convergence by using variation measure, and it is verified absolute and conditional beta convergence because of the reverse relationship between initial investment and growth rate. However, the divergence of the education in eastern, middle and western regions has rejected the existence of the club convergence. The nonlinear effect of urbanisation on human capital in education has only a single threshold value, when the rate of population urbanisation is over 0. 845, and the promoting effect of labor force transfer in different regions on education convergence can be reached to 91. 5~. The convergence of human capital in geographical space shows a strong global spatial autocorrelation accompanied by significant differences in local area, and the convergence of education human capital on spatial radiation effect of the neighbouring provinces is higher than that of static convergence.