税收竞争促进了产业结构转型升级吗?——基于总量与结构双重视角

Does Tax Competition Promote the Transformation and Upgrading of Industrial Structure?——Based on the Dual Perspectives of Total Amount and Structure

本文以2001-2014年期间数据为样本,基于税收总量与税收结构双重视角,实证分析了税收竞争对产业结构转型升级的影响。结果发现:(1)从税收总量来看,税收竞争抑制了产业结构转型升级;从税收结构来看,增值税竞争与营业税竞争促进了产业结构转型升级,而企业所得税竞争则抑制了产业结构转型升级。(2)从门槛模型估计结果来看,税收总量竞争与企业所得税竞争均抑制了产业结构转型升级且估计系数分别呈现出递减与递增趋势的单一门槛效应;而增值税竞争与营业税竞争均促进了产业结构升级但估计系数分别呈现出递减趋势的双重门槛效应与递增趋势的单一门槛效应。(3)从分时间段的回归结果来看,2008年实施的企业所得税改革与2012年实施的"营改增"并没有对上述结果产生实质性影响。随后在进行子样本与变量替代的检验后,上述结论依然稳健。本文的研究结论为实行差别化的区域税收政策提供了经验证据。

Based on the data from 2001 to 2014, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of tax competition on the industrial structure transformation and upgrading based on the dual perspectives of total tax revenue and tax structure. The results show that：（1） From the point of total tax revenue, tax competition inhibits the industrial restructuring and upgrading; From the point of tax structure, the competition of value-added tax and business tax promotes the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, while the competition of corporate income tax restrains this effect.（2） From the estimation results of the threshold model, both the competition of total tax revenue and the corporate income tax have restrained the industrial structural transformation and upgrading; Both the competition of VAT and business tax promote the upgrading of the industrial structure.（3） From the regression results of sub-time periods, the corporate income tax reform implemented in 2008 and the VAT reform implemented in 2012 have no substantial effect on the above results. The conclusion of this paper provides empirical evidence for the implementation of differentiated regional tax policy.