7～18岁汉族学生耐力素质时间序列分析——基于1985—2014年中国学生体质与健康监测报告

Time Series Analysis on the Endurance of Han Nationality Students Aged 7-18:Based on the Report of Chinese Students' Physique and Health from 1985 to 2014

目的:以人口学和体育学交叉学科的视角对1985—2014年中国学生体质与健康监测报告数据进行研究。方法:用均值、标准误、方差分析、趋势检验、F检验、t检验、发展增量和增速对耐力发展趋势进行描述性分析;对7次全国7~18岁汉族学生耐力指标长期趋势进行分析;用时间序列分析法对2019年、2024年耐力发展进行预测;探索用新方法、新思想研究体质测试相关数据,希望推动我国体质与健康研究向纵深方向发展。结果和结论:29年来,中国汉族7~18岁学生耐力素质整体呈线性下降趋势,存在性别、城乡、年龄差异;2019、2024年不同年龄组耐力素质预测方向不同。

From the perspective of interdisciplinary study of demography and physical education,this study analyzed the data of Chinese students＇ physique and health from 1985 to 2014. Methods： The endurance development trend was described by average,standard error,variance analysis,trend test,F test,t test,development increment and growth rate; the long-term trend of endurance of 7-18 years old Han students in 7 national reports was analyzed; and the endurance development in 2019 and 2024 was predicted by the time series analysis; the new methods and new ideas were explored to study related data of physical test,hoping to promote the depth development of physical and health research in our country. Results and Conclusion： In the past 29 years,the overall endurance of the 7-18 years old Chinese Han students had a linear downward trend,and there was a difference in gender,urban and rural and age. The predicted endurance of different age students in 2019 and 2024 would be different.