全球价值链分工如何影响贸易保护壁垒的实施——以反倾销为例

How Does Division of GVC Affect Implementation of Trade Protection Barriers: An Empirical Analysis Based on Antidumping Investigations

全球价值链分工的演进和以贸易保护主义为代表的"逆全球化"潮流的涌现,是当前世界经济发展的两个明显特征。本文采用1995—2011年世界投入产出数据库和世界银行反倾销数据库的合并数据,定量识别了参与全球价值链分工对反倾销实施所产生的影响。研究结果表明:参与全球价值链分工可以显著地抑制反倾销的实施,从多个角度进行稳健性检验后这一结论依然成立;差异化分析表明高收入国家与中低收入国家之间进行国际分工对反倾销实施的抑制作用更加明显;从影响机制来看,参与全球价值链分工会通过提高生产率与区域经济一体化程度来抑制反倾销的实施。上述结果不仅在一定程度上证实了全球化趋势的不可逆转,也为下一步中国对外开放政策的制定提供了有益借鉴。

The world economy nowadays is featured by the progress in the division of GVC as well as the emergence of anti-globalization, which represented by the increasing implementation of trade barriers. This paper identifies the impact of division of GVC on the antidumping investigations quantitatively, with the combined data of World Input-Output Database and World Bank’s Global Antidumping Database over 1995-2011. The paper concludes that the participation in the division of GVC could effectively reduce the implementation of antidumping,and this conclusion is still valid across all the robustness tests. The differential analysis shows that the international division between middle-high income countries and low-income countries has a larger downside impact on the antidumping implementation. The mechanism analysis indicates that the participation in the division of GVC results in an increase in both the productivity and the extent of regional economic integration, which suppresses the adoption of antidumping investigations. The conclusions identified in this paper to some extent confirm the irreversibility of the globalization, and offer a reference for the formulation of China’s future opening-up policy as well.