基于二元梯度和边际的中国制造业OFDI母国就业效应

Employment Effect of OFDI in Chinese Manufacturing Industry Based on Binary Gradient and Margin

本文从投资国别、投资二元边际两个角度分析了中国制造业OFDI对国内就业的影响,结论如下:中国无需担忧大规模"走出去"会造成国内就业空心化问题;中国制造业双梯度OFDI对国内就业均有拉动作用,但不同技术层次制造业结果存在差异,低技术制造业OFDI对国内就业的促进作用主要来自发达国家的"逆梯度"OFDI;中、高技术制造业对国内就业的拉动主要来自在发展中国家的"顺梯度"OFDI;中国制造业OFDI对国内就业的促进作用主要来自于投资的扩展边际,并且对不同技术层次进行分析时得出一致结论;分二元边际的投资国别研究发现,双梯度OFDI的结构特征对其作用结果不一致,发展中国家的"顺梯度"OFDI对国内的就业作用主要来自于集约边际,发达国家的"逆梯度"OFDI对国内就业的作用主要来自于扩展边际;不同技术层次行业的作用结果也存在差异,在发展中国家的"顺梯度"OFDI的集约边际,对低技术制造业的国内就业有显著的抑制作用,对中、高技术制造业的国内就业有促进作用,在发达国家的"逆向"OFDI扩展边际,对中、低等技术制造业国内就业有显著的拉动作用,对高技术制造业的拉动作用不明显。

This paper analyzes the influence of Outward Foreign Direct Investment（OFDI） in Chinese manufacturing industry on domestic employment from the perspectives of investment country and investment duality margin, and draws the following conclusion： China does not need to worry that the largescale ＂going out＂ will cause the hollowing out of domestic employment. On one hand, double-graded OFDI in China’s manufacturing industry has a positive effect on domestic employment. However, there are differences in manufacturing results at different levels of technology. The effect of low-tech manufacturing OFDI on domestic employment is mainly from the ＂up gradient＂ OFDI in developed countries; higher-tech manufacturing’s pull on domestic employment mainly comes from ＂down gradient＂ OFDI in developing countries. On the other hand,when examining relations between the structural characteristics of investment and domestic employment, the paper finds that the role of OFDI in promoting domestic employment mainly comes from the extended margins of investment, and the same conclusion is reached in the analysis of different levels of technology. Further, the dual margin study of investment country reveals that the structural characteristics of the dual-gradient OFDI have inconsistent results. The effect on domestic employment of the ＂down gradient＂ OFDI in developing countries mainly comes from the intensive margin, and the one of the ＂up gradient＂ OFDI in developed countries mainly comes from the expansive margins. And there are also differences in the effects of industries at different levels of technology. As for the intensive margins of ＂down gradient＂ OFDI in developing countries, there is a significant inhibitory effect on domestic employment in low-tech manufacturing,while there is a catalytic effect on domestic employment in higher-tech manufacturing industries. As for the expansive margins of ＂up gradient＂ OFDI in developed countries, there is a significant catalytic effect on domestic employment in low-and medium-technology manufacturing industries, but there is no obvious effect on high-tech manufacturing industries.