中国外贸集装箱生成影响因素研究——基于动态面板数据模型

Influence Factors Analysis of Foreign Trade Container Generation Based on Dynamic Panel Data Model

外贸集装箱影响因素和地区差异的研究是预测外贸集装箱生成量和分布的基础,可为沿海港口布局和集疏运体系建设提供依据。利用动态面板数据模型研究了2009—2015年中国外贸集装箱生成的影响因素。结果表明:外贸集装箱生成与路径依赖效应、外贸市场规模、产业结构和吸引外资能力呈显著的正相关关系,与劳动力成本呈显著的负相关关系;东部地区主要影响因素为路径依赖效应、外贸市场规模、产业结构和劳动力成本,中西部地区主要影响因素则为路径依赖效应、外贸市场规模、吸引外资能力和劳动力成本。目前我国外贸集装箱生成的空间格局已经形成,但生成动力不足,未来将进入低速增长阶段。因此,我国港口布局和集疏运体系建设应充分考虑这趋势,在规划过程中明确港口功能定位,避免盲目建设和恶性竞争。

The study on the influence factors and area differentiation of foreign trade container generation was the basis of prediction of foreign container generation and distribution,which could provide reference for coastal port layout and transportation system. The influence factors of China＇s foreign trade container generation in 2009-2015 were investigated based on dynamic panel date model. The main findings were as follows： Foreign trade container generation was positively related to path dependence effect,foreign trade market scale,industrial structure and ability to attract foreign investment,negatively related to labor costs. The main influence factors in eastern region were path dependence effect,foreign trade market scale,industrial structure and labor costs,path dependence effect,foreign trade market scale,ability to attract foreign investment and labor costs in midwest region. The spatial pattern of China＇s foreign trade container generationwas formed,but because of the lack of generation power,container transport would enter a stage of slow growth. Therefore,the construction of port layout and transportation system in our country should take this treed infofull consideration,mare clear the location of port funcfion in the planning process,and avoid blind construction and vicious competition.