全概率公式的教学研究

On the Teaching of Full Probability Formula

文章从事件概率的乘法公式和加法公式入手,引出全概率公式的定义,利用"五步教学法":退—理—推—译—用,对全概率公式的教学进行了探究,认识了全概率公式的产生原因,掌握了全概率公式的基本思想,推广了全概率公式的表达形式,挖掘了全概率公式的深刻内涵,找到了全概率公式的实际应用,化解了概率论的教学难点,明白了全概率公式的关键要素——完备事件组。

This article starts with multiplication formula and addition formula of probability of the event, leading to the definition of the total probability formula, using the ＂five step teaching method＂ ：retreat - logic - push - translate - use, making a thorough inquiry about the teaching of the probability formula. Understanding the causes of the total probability formula, grasping the basic idea of the whole probability formula, promoting the forms of expression of the total probability formula, mining the profound connotation of the total proba- bility formula, finding the actual application of the total probability formula, resolving the difficulties in teaching of probability theory, understanding the key elements of the total probability formula - exhaustive events.