排球赛制的随机原理分析

Random Principle Analysis of Volleyball Competition System

利用概率论的相关知识和MATLAB软件进行实战模拟,对排球比赛15分制的7局4胜和25分制的5局3胜的胜率进行了讨论,得到当P>0.5时,W_(15,7-4)(p)≤W_(25,5-3)(p),即在一球比赛中获胜的概率P>0.5时,此运动队在25分的5局3胜胜制中获胜的概率比在在15分的7局4胜制中获胜的概率大,特别当0.5<P<0.65时,W_(25,5-3)(p)-W_(15,7-4)(p)的值相对比较大,当P<0.5时,W_(15,7-4)(p)≥W_(25,5-3)(p),即在一球比赛中获胜的概率P<0.5时,此运动队在15分的7局4胜制中获胜的概率比在25分的5局3胜胜制中获胜的概率大,特别当0.35<P<0.5时,W_(15,7-4)(p)-W_(25,5-3)(p)的值相对比较大。

By using the knowledge of probability theory and MATLAB software, the winning probabilities of 4 wins in 7 innings of the 15 - game system and 3 wins in 5 innings of the 25 - game system in volleyball was discussed, the conclusion that when P 〉 0. 5, W15,7-4 （P） ≤ W25,5-3 （P） ,that is to say,the probability of a player winning in one goal competition P 〉 0. 5 was discussed ,This sport has a greater chance of winning in 3 wins in 5 innings of the 25 - game system than in 4 wins in 7 innings of the 15 - game system,especially ,and it can be concluded that wben0. 5 〈 P 〈 0. 65 the value of W25,5-3 （p） - W15,7-4 （p） is relatively large at the same time. at the same time ,when P 〈 0. 5 W15,7-4 （p）≥ W25,5-3 （p） ,that is to say,the probability of a player winning in one goal competition P 〈 0. 5, This sport has a greater chance of winning in 4 wins in 7 innings of the 15 - game system than in 3wins in 5 innings of the 25 - game system, especially the conclusion that when0. 35 〈 P 〈 0. 5, value of W15,7-4（P） - W25,5-3 （P） is relatively large is obtained.