基于能耗指标的全社会用电量预测方法研究

Research on Forecasting Method of Electricity Consumption in the Whole Society Based on Energy Consumption Indicators

充分考虑政府发布的经济社会发展与能源相关规划,基于单位GDP能耗等约束性指标,通过分析电能在终端能源消费比重的变化规律,建立全社会用电量预测模型。并通过具体算例预测2020年河南省全社会用电量,验证了预测方法的可行性和实用性,可为电力规划和企业经营提供决策依据。

Fully considering the government’s economic and social development and related energy planning, based on energy consumption per GDP and other binding indicators, the change of electrical energy in terminal energy consumption was analyzed, and the forecasting model of electricity consumption in the whole society was built. The electricity consumption in the whole society of Henan in 2020 was successfully forecasted through a specific example. The feasibility and practicability of this forecasting method were verified. This method can provide decision-making basis for electric power planning and enterprise management.