2000-2014年中国肿瘤登记地区肝癌发病年龄变化趋势分析

Trend analysis of age of diagnosis for liver cancer in cancer registry areas of China,2000-2014

目的了解2000—2014年中国肝癌平均发病年龄变化趋势.方法基于2000年1月1日至2014年12月31日间22个具有连续发病资料的肿瘤登记处新发肝癌数据,按肝癌病例出生年份计算1925—1994年的出生队列发病率,并按肝癌病例发病年龄计算年龄别发病率等统计指标.采用国际Segi＇s标准人口进行年龄结构标准化,利用线性回归模型分析平均发病年龄变化趋势.结果2014年肿瘤登记地区80岁以上人群发病率为108.21/10万,30～39岁人群发病率为5.09/10万.2000—2014年肝癌平均发病年龄上升,男性肝癌平均发病年龄由2000年的58.80岁增加至2014年的62.35岁（t=18.70,P〈0.001）,女性则由64.02岁增加至68.99岁（t=20.50,P〈0.001）.同时,2014年肝癌70岁以上组的发病构成比为25.05％,高于2000年的22.49％.结论2000—2014年我国肝癌平均发病年龄上升.

Objective To investigate trends of mean age of diagnosis for liver cancer during 2000 to 2014, which may provide basic information for making feasible cancer prevention strategies. Methods Based on the continuous cancer incidence data from 22 cancer registries of China between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014, the incidence by birth-cohort （year of birth between 1925 and 1994） and age specific incidence rates were calculated. The incidence of different age groups were also calculated. World Segi ＇s population was used for age standardization. The liner regression model was applied to analyze the changing trend of mean age of diagnosis. Results In 2014, the incidence rate for population with 80 years older and above was 108.21 per 100000, whereas the rate for population at 30-39 years old was 5.09 per 100000. But the mean age of diagnosis for liver cancer showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2014. For male, it had increased from 58.80 to 62.35（t=18.70,P〈0.001）. For female, it had increased from 64.02 to 68.99（t=20.50, P〈0.001）. After age standardization, the mean age of diagnosis still showed increasing trend. Meanwhile, the proportion of liver cancer in people above 70 years old was 25.05%in 2014, which was higher than that in 2000 （22.49%）. Conclusion The mean age of liver cancer incidence was increasing during 2000-2014.