2018年夏季全国气候趋势展望

Seasonal Outlook for 2018 Summer over China

中科院大气所ENSO预测结果显示,2018年夏季(6—8月),赤道中东太平洋海温将处于中性状态。中科院大气所的全国气候趋势预测结果表明,2018年夏季(6—8月),全国总体形势为降水趋于常年。部分地区可能呈现偏多或偏少的情况。具体为,东北东部、华北大部、西北地区东部、江南大部、华南北部和中部降水正常略偏多,其中河套地区降水偏多2—5成,可能发生局地洪涝。我国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少。登陆台风数正常偏少。

The ENSO prediction system of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences （IAPCAS） predicts that La Nifia- like condition will disappear by mid-spring, then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by suminer. According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction of lAP, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of southeastern China, North China, south part of Northeast China, east part of Northwest China. The other parts of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition during the boreal summer. The landing Typhoon will be less than normal in 2018.