东莞市流感样病例的发病与空气PM2.5的相关性

Correlation between influenza-like illness and air PM2.5 in Dongguan

目的探究空气中PM2.5的浓度对流感样病例的影响。方法收集东莞市2016年7月至2017年7月13家哨点监测点上报的流感样病例人数。同时收集我市环境检测中心和气象中心这一年时间内大气中PM2.5浓度数据和其他相关环境信息。采用Poisson回归线性模型和滞后效应分析将PM2.5暴露浓度与流感样病例数建立相关性,分析大气中PM2.5浓度对流感样病例的影响趋势。结果东莞市2016年7月至2017年7月PM2.5年均值为(131±64)μg/m^3,其中全年中有203 d(55.6%)PM2.5的日平均浓度超过75μg/m^3;滞后效应结果显示,流感样病例总量的ER值在滞后第1天达到最高值,且在前4 d均表现为显著性增加效应(P<0.05);流感样患病人数在累积滞后4 d时达到最高,当PM2.5浓度每增加10μg/m^3时流感样患病人数累积增加1.08%(95%CI:0.90%~1.23%)。结论大气中PM2.5的暴露浓度对流感样疾病的发病率有一定程度的影响,两者具有密切相关性。

Objective To explore the effect of the concentration of PM2.5 in the air on influenza-like illness.Methods The influenza like cases reported from 13 sentinel points from July 2016 to July 2017 were collected in Dongguan city. At the same time, the atmospheric PM2.5 concentration data and other related environmental information were collected from City Environmental Detection Center and Meteorological Center. Poisson regression linear model and hysteresis effect analysis were used to establish the correlation between PM2.5 exposure concentration and influenza-like illness, and to analyze the trend of PM2.5 concentration in convection induced cases. Results The PM2.5 annual average of Dongguan city from July 2016 to July 2017 was（131±64） μg/m^3, with a daily average of PM2.5 exceeding 75 μg/m^3 for 203 days（55.6%）. The hysteresis effect showed that the ER value of influenza-like cases reached the highest value on the first day, and showed a significant increase effect in the first 4 days（P〈0.05）. The number of influenza-like illness patients reached the highest at the cumulative lag of 4 days. When the PM2.5 concentration increased by 10 μ g/m^3, the cumulative number of influenza-like patients increased by 1.08%（95% CI： 0.90%-1.23%）Conclusion The exposure concentration of atmospheric PM2.5 has a certain degree of influence on the incidence of influenza-like illness, and both are closely related.