日本FTA战略的影响因素及其发展路径

The Impact Factors of Japan's FTA Strategy and Its Development Path

本文依托1997年日本数据,运用二元响应模型分析了日本FTA战略的决定因素及其发展路径,同时对日本未来的FTA路线图进行预测。研究表明:日本FTA战略在不同时期表现出不同的特色和重点,长期影响其选择FTA伙伴的主要是日本与贸易伙伴的"地理距离远近"、"要素禀赋差异"、"贸易互补性"和"贸易结合度"等因素。理论模型准确预测了日本54个FTA中的51个,准确率为94%;另外,预测到了日本94个非FTA伙伴中的85个,准确率为90%。

The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact factors and the path of Japan＇ s FTA strategy by a qualitative choice model depending on the data in 1997. Combined with the practice of Japan＇s FTA strategy and models＇ results, the roadmap of Japan＇s FTA strategy in the future has been empirically predicted. Our conclusion reveals that although Japan＇s FTA Strategy shows different features and focuses in different periods, factors such as geographical distance, the difference of factor endowment, trade complementarityand trade integration degree between Japan and its partners have always worked as the essential causes which affect Japan＇ s option for its, FTA partners in the long term. The empirical model correctly predicts 94% of the 51 Japan＇s FTAs in 54 existing in 2014 and 90% of the remaining 8,5 no FTA pairs in 94.