不确定因素耦合下输电网风险规划研究综述

Review of risk-based transmission network planning under coupled uncertainties

传统的确定性风险分析方法由于存在多种弊端,难以适应新形势下的输电网规划和方案评估,为了更加合理地管控输电网风险水平,基于概率性分析方法对输电网风险规划和评估等研究成果进行了综述。介绍了输电网中的安全、设备、结构、管理和市场等一系列风险因素及相应建模方法;从场景规划、随机规划、模糊规划和区间规划等方面,评述了考虑多种不确定因素的输电网风险规划方法;基于评估指标和方法,综述了近年来国内外考虑多种不确定因素的系统风险评估体系研究成果。在此基础上,结合高比例可再生能源、交直流混联、网源协调、需求响应和建模优化等研究热点,展望了未来考虑多种不确定因素的输电网风险规划领域中需要关注的问题。

Owing to the drawbacks of conventional deterministic risk analysis methods,it is hard for them to adapt to the transmission network planning and solution evaluation under the new situation. In order to control the risk levels of transmission networks more reasonably,the achievements of risk planning and assessment of transmission networks based on probabilistic analysis methods are reviewed. The risk modeling methods for security,equipment,structure,management and market in transmission networks are introduced. From the perspectives of scenario-based planning,stochastic planning,fuzzy planning and interval planning,the transmission network risk planning methods considering multiple uncertainties are commented. The domestic and international research results of system risk assessment considering multiple uncertainties based on indices and approaches are summarized. On this basis,the problems to be focused for future study on the transmission network risk planning considering multiple uncertainties are put forward,which are incorporated to the hot study topics such as high renewable energy penetration,AC-DC interconnection,grid-source coordination,demand response and modeling optimization.