人口结构转变与人身保险市场发展趋势——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

Demographic Structure Shift and the Development Trend of Personal Insurance Market: An Empirical Research Based on Provincial-level Panel Data

人口结构的剧变正在对中国经济社会的发展产生重要影响。本文对我国宏观层面的人口结构现状及人口结构转变的基本事实进行了描述。在此基础上,使用2008~2015年全国30个省、直辖市、自治区(港、澳、台、西藏除外)的面板数据,通过静态面板模型和动态面板模型研究人口结构及其他相关因素对人身保险市场发展的影响,并对经济发展不同的地区进行异质性分析,从人口结构的视角对保险地域发展差异的形成机制提供了新的解释视角。研究表明,在经济较为发达的地区,老年抚养比和少儿抚养比对人身保险密度、深度和市场份额的影响均是显著为正的,且老年抚养比的边际效应大于少儿抚养比。然而在经济发展水平较弱的地区,无论是老年抚养比还是少儿抚养比的显著性都不高。本文的研究结论对我国现阶段的产业结构调整和金融行业格局的转变有着重要的借鉴意义。

The dramatic shift in population structure has an important impact on China＇ s socio-economic development. This paper elaborated on the present situation and the basic facts of macro population structure transformation in China. Based on these facts, we analyzed the influences of demographic structure and other factors on the development of personal insurance market based on the province-level panel data from 2008 -2015, and using both static panel model and dynamic panel model. Further more, we did a heterogeneity analysis on regions with different economic development levels, which led us to analyze the formation mechanism of regional differences in insurance development levels from the perspective of demographic structure. Our research showed that in the relatively developed area, the elderly dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio had significant positive effects on life insurance density, penetration and market shares, and the marginal effect of the elderly dependency was greater than that of the child dependency ratio. However, in the areas with weak economic development, the marginal effects of both the elderly dependency ratio and the child dependency ratio were not significant. The research conclusion has an important reference significance to the adjustment of industrial structure and the shift of the financial industry pattern for China.