P2P平台不确定情境下的投资决策行为研究

INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING BEHAVIOR UNDER THE UNCERTAIN SITUATIONS ON P2P PLATFORM

为研究P2P网贷平台上的投资决策行为,本文将决策过程划分为两个阶段,分别探讨出借者在第一阶段借款标的选择和第二阶段投资方案确定中的决策表现,并结合交易成败结果,对出借者投资决策行为的一致性与合理性进行判断。本文采用近六年拍拍贷数据研究发现,出借者在第一阶段倾向选择期限短、通过预审、历史借款成功率高的安全有保障的标的,表现为风险规避。而第二阶段转而偏好期限长、未通过预审、历史借款成功率低的高收益高风险的标的,表现为风险追逐。最终投资结果表明,出借者第一阶段的决策行为较为合理,而第二阶段的决策行为不具备合理性,这一发现对于提高P2P平台投资成功率与改善投资效果有决策参考价值。

To explore the lenders＇ decision-making behavior in P2P online lending platform, the whole investment process is fully considered, including the bids select in the first stage and the investment scheme determination in the second stage. In addition, we investigate the consistency and rationality of decision-making behavior using the investment success rate. We conduct empirical analysis on Palpal lending data for nearly six years. The empirical results show that lenders are risk aversion, and tend to choose the secure bids with short duration, examined, and high history borrowing success rate in the first stage. While in the second stage, they are risk-seekers, and prefer high-yield high-risk bids with long duration, unexamined, and low history borrowing success rate. Our findings are interesting to indicate that lenders＇ decision-making behavior in the first stage is more reasonable when compared to the second stage, which help to improve the success rate and effect of investment in P2P Platform.