吉林省年降水量空间分布及周期变化规律分析

Spatial Distribution and Periodicity Analysis of Annual Precipitation in Jilin Province

研究吉林省降水空间分布及周期变化规律,对区域水资源利用、农业生产安排及旱涝灾害防治有重要意义。利用1958~2011年吉林省逐月降水序列资料,采用Kriging插值、距平和Morlet小波分析方法,分析吉林省降水空间分布及多时间尺度周期变化规律,并对吉林省近期降水状况进行预测。结果表明,在空间上,吉林省降水量整体呈现东南部山区少、西北部平原少和南部山区多的"一多两少"格局;吉林省降水量存在着区域性的多重时间尺度下的周期变化规律,并以此大致将吉林省划分为四个区域:西北部,年降水周期主要为5~6、10~20、25~30年;中部,主要为4~8、16~25年;南部,主要为7~8、13~17年;东南部,主要为5~10、12~17年;依据周期规律,推测2010年以后,吉林省在不同地区、不同时间周期下降水量呈现不同的丰枯形势。研究成果可为吉林省水资源变化特征研究及水资源管理提供数据支持。

Studying the spatial distribution and periodical variation of precipitation in Jilin Province is of great signifi- cance to the utilization of regional water resources, agricultural production arrangements, and prevention of droughts and floods. According to the monthly precipitation data from the periods of 1958-2011, the spatial distribution and periodici- ties in Jilin Province were analyzed by using the Kriging interpolation, anomaly and Morlet wavelet analysis. And then the recent precipitation in Jilin Province was predicted. The results show that in spatially, the precipitation of Jilin Province as a whole presents that few in the southeastern mountains and the northwest plain, much in the southern mountains which can be summarized as ＂one much and two few＂; According to the almost periodicities of annual precipitation se- quences, it can be divided into four parts： 5-6, 10-20 and 25-30 years in the northwest~ 4-8 and i6-25 years in the center; 7-8 and 13-17 years in the southl 5-10 and 12-17 years in the southeastl Based on the periodicity conjecture., after 2010, the different regions of Jilin Province revealed high and low situations at different time scales. The results can provide da- ta support for the study of water resources changes characteristics and management in Jilin Province.