考虑流量演进过程的丰水期梯级水电风险调度

Risk Scheduling of Cascaded Hydropower in Wet Season Considering Evolution of River Flow

丰水期梯级水电流域来水充沛,上下游水电站之间的流量演进过程对于水电站的优化调度具有重要影响。为了细致描述上下游出入库流量传播过程,结合槽蓄方程和水量平衡方程,运用马斯京根法建立了上下游流量的耦合关系,同时针对丰水期天然来水和市场电价的双重不确定性,综合考虑发电商的风险喜恶行为对调度决策的影响,构建了梯级水电风险调度模型,并利用混合整数线性规划法予以求解。算例结果表明,丰水期考虑河道流量演进过程的梯级水电优化调度模型精确性更高,在不同风险偏好下,可有效地平衡风险和发电效益之间的矛盾。

The process of flow evolution between upstream and downstream of hydropower station has an important influence on the optimal scheduling of cascaded hydropower system. For detailed description of the process of flow propa- gation between upstream and downstream of reservoir, the Muskingum method was applied to establish the coupling rela- tionship of river flow by combining with water balance formulation and channel storage formulation. Due to the uncertain- ties of natural inflow and market price, the risk dispatching model of cascaded hydropower was built by considering the impact of power producer towards risk-aversion behavior on the scheduling. Finally, the mixed integer linear program- ming （MII.P） method was applied to solve the model. Numerical studies demonstrate that the optimal scheduling model in wet season with the consideration of the process of river flow evolution is more accurate and can balance the risk and generation efficiency under different risk preference.