基于设备状态与调度运行的电网风险评估方法及应用

Risk Assessment Methodology and Application of Power Grid Based on Equipment Condition and Dispatching Operation

电网风险辨识评估对于降低电网风险水平,保证电网安全稳定运行意义重大。考虑不同电力设备故障影响因素,分别构建环境暴露型和环境封闭型设备故障率模型。基于蒙特卡洛抽样模拟确定系统状态概率,并采用最优切负荷模型确定系统故障负荷损失。为进一步分析电网停电对不同用户区域产生的影响,构建考虑地区用户分类的单位停电损失函数,从而计算停电导致的不同损失后果。结果表明,停电损失由大到小排序为以服务业为主的中心城区、以工业和居民为主的城市副中心、高能耗工业聚集的城市郊区。风险评估结果贴近实际情况,具有一定的推广应用价值。

The purpose of power grid risk identification and assessment is to formulate preventive and control meas ures to effectively reduce the risk level of power grid. Considering the different influencing factors of power equipment failures, the failure rate models of environmental exposure and environmental closed equipment were established. Based on Monte Carlo simulation, the state probability of the system was calculated, and the optimal load shedding model was used to determine the load loss. In order to further analyze the impact of power outages on different userff regions, a unit outage cost function considering the classification o{ regional users was constructed to calculate the consequences of differ- ent losses caused by power outages. The results show that the power cut losses are sorted from large to small, which are urban centers centered on service industry, industrial and residential city sub center, and urban suburbs with high energy consumption and industrial agglomeration. The risk assessment results are consistent with actual situation, which has certain promotion and application values.