研发回报率、地方政府研发支出与经济增长的统计考察

Statistical Investigation of Return to R&D Investment,Local Government R&D and Economic Growth

研发回报率理应成为政府调节研发活动的重要依据。文章从政府财政政策的角度出发,在估算研发投入回报率的基础上,考察不同研发投入回报率下政府研发支出对经济增长的影响。基于面板门槛模型,以研发回报率为门槛变量探讨政府研发支出与经济增长之间的非线性关系。研究发现：政府研发支出对经济增长的影响存在双重门槛效应。当研发回报率处于低位,即研发回报率低于第一重门槛时,政府研发支出增加1%,人均GDP增加0.041%;当研发回报率处于中位,即位于第一重门槛与第二重门槛之间时,政府研发支出增加1%,人均GDP增加0.061%;当研发回报率处于高位,即达到第二重门槛时,政府研发投入增加1%,人均GDP增加0.336%。

The return to RD investment should be an important basis for government to regulate RD activities. Starting from the view of fiscal policy, and based on the estimation of the return to RD investment, this paper investigates the impact of government RD on economic growth under different returns to RD investment. On the basis of panel threshold model, the paper takes the return to RD investment as threshold variable to discuss the nonlinear relationship between government RD and economic growth. The study result shows that the government＇s RD expenditure has double threshold effect on economic growth.When RD returns are low, which means that the return to RD is lower than the first threshold value, an increase of 1% in government RD would respond to that of 0.041% in GDP; when RD returns are in the middle, between the first and second thresholds, an increase of 1% in government RD would respond to that of 0.061% in GDP; when the return to RD is larger than the second threshold value, an increase of 1% in government RD would respond to that of 0.336% in GDP.