长江经济带创新速度的空间集聚及其门槛效应研究

Spatial Agglomeration and Threshold Effects of Innovation Speed in Yangtze River Economic Belt

基于长江经济带109个城市2004—2015年的专利授权量,利用泰尔指数、变异系数、探索性空间分析及面板数据门槛模型等方法,研究其创新速度的空间集聚及其门槛效应,得出结论:长江经济带创新速度的区域差异呈现"四升四降"的双M型波动下降形态;城市间有显著的正空间作用且有增强趋势;冷热点空间分布随时间变化,热点区向长江中上游地区转移,冷点区向下游地区集聚;趋势面平缓,区域间的空间差异不明显,南方向上的城市实现了对北方向上城市的赶超;资本投入和信息化水平对创新速度的影响均具有显著的三门槛效应。最后,根据研究结论提出相关政策建议。

Taking the data of patent authorization from 2004 to 2015 of 109 cities in Yangtze river economic belt as re- search objective, this paper researches the temporal - spatial evolution characteristics and its threshold effect of innovation speed, by using methods of the Theil index, variation coefficient, explore spatial data analysis and panel threshold model. The conclusions are as follows： the innovation speed in Yangtze River Economic Belt is decreasing with fluctuations as a double M type, meaning the difference of it is narrowing. The urban agglomerations of cities are positive and increasing. The spatial distribution of its hot spots and cold spots varies with time, such as the hot spot areas are moving to the middle - upper reaches of the Yangtze River from the lower reaches, and the cold spot areas are moving to the lower reaches form the middle and upper reaches. The trend surfaces are gentle, which means the diversity of innovation speed in this region is unapparent. And urban cities in the south have reversed the backward situation on innovation speed and exceeded the cities in the north. Capital investment and information level both have significant three - threshold effects on innovation speed. Besides, the effect of the economic base on innovation speed is significantly positive. According to the conclusions, this pa- per proposes some policy suggestions.