财政分权和人口流动对地方软公共品供给的影响

Analysis to the influences on non-economic public goods supply by fiscal decentralization and population migration

在对财政分权与人口流动对软公共品供给影响进行理论分析的基础上,基于中国省级面板数据,实证检验了相关理论假说。经区分人口流入地和流出地的分组可行广义最小二乘法回归分析发现,财政资源配置并未与人口流动相匹配,一地区人口流出规模的扩大造成了其人均软公共品供给水平的提升。考虑到地区经济发展差异是影响人口流动的根本因素,进一步构建面板门槛模型检验了财政分权与人口流动与软公共品供给的关系。结果显示:在经济欠发达地区,财政分权造成了软公共品供给随人口流出量的增加而下降的现象;相反,在经济发达地区,财政分权则造成了软公共品供给随人口流入量的增加而下降的现象,且财政分权度越高,人口流入对软公共品供给的负效应就越明显。

Through the theoretical analysis to the influence of fiscal decentralization and population migration on the supply of non-economic public goods,this essay conducts an empirical analysis to test the theoretical hypothesis by Chininese provincial panel data from 2007 to 2015. By distinguishing place of population inflow and outflow,the Grouped FGLS Regression results prove that the allocation of fiscal resources does not reflect the needs of migration population,and the expansion of the population outflow in a region has led to an increase of per capita non-economic public goods. As the level of economic development is the main factor of population migration,this essay conducts a Panel Threshold Model to analyze of the influence of fiscal decentralization and population migration on non-economic public goods supply. It is found that in the underdeveloped areas,the fiscal decentralization causes the same change of the population migration and the non-economic public goods supply. But in the developed areas,the fiscal decentralization leads to the reverse change. When the degree of fiscal decentralization enhances,the negative influence increases. This means that the degree of unequal consumption of non-economic public goods exacerbates on the household registration level.