从能源时代更替和“气荒”看我国能源构成多元化和因地因时制宜的战略思维

Strategy of China′s Diversified and Flexible Energy Structure:Evidences from the Alternation of Energy Eras and the Gas Shortage

以能源构成中占明显优势和主导地位的种类划分能源时代。目前全球已进入石油时代,近中期仍将保持油、气、煤和非化石能源四分天下的格局,本世纪后期将进入＂后石油时代＂。能源时代的更替显示出随着科技水平和生产力的发展,能源向高效、环保方向优化的总体趋势。中国在能源发展上有明显的特殊性,整体上仍处于能源的煤炭时代,可能直到本世纪30年代初还难以说进入了石油时代。这与我国的资源禀赋特点有很大关系,也受到经济和能源发展的巨大不平衡性、能源基础设施建设滞后的制约。我国近年来特别重视低碳能源的发展,但不够合理的补贴政策使新能源发展态势不理想。对新能源上网的硬性规定也影响了电力行业的正常高效运行,出现不同程度的弃能。为了达到环保要求,过多地把压煤指标集中在煤改气上且出现向下层层加码的现象,额外增加的用气量使本来在冬季就供不应求的现象明显加剧。问题的根源在于改革不到位,没能充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定作用,价格结构不合理。应倡导多能互补、因地因时制宜的能源发展指导思想。允许不同地区之间、城市与边远乡村之间的能源构成优化路线和进程有所差别,不应搞一刀切。实现多能互补协同发展,分布式能源将成为重要的发展方式,多种形式的蓄能是高效运营和调节的必要手段。必须立足于国内外两种资源并重视国内资源的充分有效利用,尽量使油气进口来源多元化。要真正落实＂节能是能源战略之首＂的基本理念。这就是能源发展战略思维的广义多元化。

Energy eras are divided according to the dominant species in energy structure.Now the world has entered the oil era,and the pattern of oil,gas,coal and non-fossil energy will remain in near-and mid-term.By the end of this century,the world will enter a post-oil era.The alternation of energy eras shows the over-all trend of energy optimization towards high efficiency and environmental protection with the development of science and technology and productivity.With obvious particularities in energy development,China is still in the coal era on the whole and may not possibly enter the oil era by the early 2030 s.This is closely related to the characteristics of China ′s resource endowments and restricted by the great imbalance between economic development and energy development and the lag of energy infrastructure construction.In recent years,China has paid special attention to the development of low-carbon energy,but unreasonable subsidy policy has made the development of new energy unsatisfactory.The rigid regulations on the application of new energy have also affected the normal and efficient operation of the power industry,resulting in different levels of energy abandonment.In order to meet the environment protection requirements,too much coal reduction ratio was imposed on coal-to-gas reforms,and the ratio got higher and higher from the upper level to the lower level.The additional gas consumption has intensified the gas supply shortage in winter.The problems are rooted in the in-adequate reforms,the failure to give full play to the decisive role of market in resource allocation,and the unreasonable price structure.Multi-energy complementary and flexible energy development strategy should be advocated.Differences between the routes and progresses of various regions,cities and remote villages in energy structure optimization should be allowed,and a ＂one-size-fits-all＂ approach should be abandoned.To achieve multi-energy complementary and coordinated development,distributed energy will become an important development mode,and the diversified forms of energy storage are the necessary means of efficient operation and regulation.The energy development in China must be based on both domestic and foreign resources,and special attention should be paid to the full and effective utilization of domestic resources,so as to achieve diversified sources of oil and gas imports.The basic concept of regarding energy conservation as the top priority of energy strategy must be truly implemented.This is the generalized diversification of the strategic thinking of energy development.