自主创新、产业政策与经济增长

Independent Innovation, Industrial Policy and Economic Growth

本文在一般均衡框架下构建理论模型本文在一般均衡框架下构建理论模型,并用数值模拟了“税收优惠”“信贷补贴”和“直接研发补贴发补贴”三种产业政策将如何影响平衡增长路径上的自主创新绩效以及经济增长速率等内生变量。结果表明表明,直接的研发补贴会完全挤出私人部门的研发支出,并不能提高平衡增长路径上的经济增长率,而间接的产业刺激政策间接的产业刺激政策,如税收补贴、信贷补贴可以有效提高平衡增长路径上的经济增长率,并且信贷补贴效果最好贴效果最好。因此,未来产业政策应该是对技术创新领域整体给予相关的补贴及优惠,营造一个公平自由的创新环境由的创新环境,而对新兴技术、新兴产业的方向不应该做过多的判断与干预,即由“选择性产业政策”回归到回归到“战略性产业政策”。

Under the general equilibrium framework, this paper examines how the industrial policies such as tax benefits, credit subsidy and R＆D subsidy will influence the independent innovation＇ s performance and the economic growth on the balanced growth path by the theory model and numerical simulation. The result shows that the direct governmental R＆D subsidy may squeeze the private sector＇ s R＆D expenditure and cannot enhance the economic growth rate, otherwise the indirect industrial policy such as tax benefits, credit subsidy can do it, especially does the credit subsidy. Therefore, the future industrial policy should focus on the whole technological innovation field and foster an innovation atmosphere rather than judging and interfering the direction of emerging technology or emerging industry.