产业结构变迁与高校产出互动关系——以湖北省为例

Interaction of Industrial Structure Change and University Outputs:A Case Study of Hubei Province

明确产业结构变迁与高校产出的关系对于推动产业结构优化升级、完善高校发展策略有重要意义。将产业结构变迁量化为产业结构高级化和合理化两个指标,将高校产出量化为毕业生规模、学历高级化和创新产出3个指标,最后通过Granger检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解确定它们之间的因果关系及影响程度。研究结果表明:(1)产业结构高级化和合理化是学历高级化的格兰杰原因,技术市场成交额、毕业生规模是产业结构合理化的格兰杰原因;(2)学历高级化能对产业结构变迁的冲击做出及时反应;产业结构合理化对创新产出的冲击具有延迟响应的特点,对毕业生规模的冲击有一定回馈但并不强烈;(3)产业结构高级化和合理化对学历高级化具有高贡献能力,创新产出对产业结构合理化的贡献能力远大于毕业生规模。

It is of great significance to clarify the interaction between industrial structure change and university outputs for promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and optimizing the development strategy of universities. Firstly,we use the improved cosine method and Theil index to measure the industrial structure change in Hubei Province. Then,on the basis of analyzing the defects and limitations of the existing evaluation indexes and measuring method of university outputs,we introduce a more rational measuring method to evaluate the university outputs. Finally,Grainger causality test,VAR model,Pulse response function and Variance decomposition are adopted to study the interaction between the industrial structure change and the university outputs in Hubei province from 2004 to 2013. The results show that 1） the advancement and rationalization of industrial structure are the Grainger reason for the education advancement. The technical market turnover and the graduates scale are the Grainger reason for the industrial structure rationalization; 2） the education advancement is able to respond to the impact of industrial structure change in a timely manner. The impact of the industrial structure rationalization on the innovation outputs is characterized by a response delay,whereas the impact on the graduates scale is not strong; 3） the advancement and rationalization of the industrial structure make great contribution to the education advancement. The contribution of innovation outputs to the industrial structure rationalization is much greater than that of the graduates scale.