国产大豆“量增价跌”现象的反思

Analysis on the Phenomenon of Price Down with Production Up in Domestic Soybean

扩大大豆种植面积是农业供给侧结构性调整的内容之一。自2016年以来,我国大豆播种面积连续2年大幅增加,2017年大豆总产量达到1 420万吨,较2015年增加了241万吨。然而,国产大豆产量增加并未减少大豆进口,反而降低了国产大豆的收购价格。2017年新豆上市初期价格低于2016年同期且跌速较快,黑龙江哈尔滨和佳木斯食用大豆2018年2月底的收购价格较2017年9月初的价格下降了11.7%和11.3%,形成了"量增价跌"或"豆丰价贱"的局面。究其原因,国产大豆与进口大豆已具有鲜明的品质和用途差异,形成了食用大豆市场和油用大豆市场2个相对独立的大豆市场。因此,当国产大豆明显增产时,不会减少油用大豆进口,反而因国产食用大豆供给增加降低了国产食用大豆的价格。应当对国产大豆的相关看法和政策重新进行审视和反思。

Expanding soybean planting acreage is one of the strategies in China＇s agricultural supply side reform. The soybean planting acreage in China has expanded for two years since 2016. The total production of soybean in 2017 reached 14 200 thousand tons which was 2 410 thousand tons more than that in 2015. However, the increase of domestic soybean production did not reduce the soybean imports,reduced the purchase price of domestic soybean. The price of new soybean in 2017 was lower than the same period in 2016 and fell fast. The purchase price of food soybean at the end of February 2018 was lower 11.7% and 11.3% than those at the end of September 2017 in Harbin and Jiamusi in Heilongjiang Province. The reason is that domestic and imported soybeans have distinct differences in quality and use,which develops into two relatively independent soybean markets： the food soybean market and the oil soybean market. The import of oil soybean will not be reduced and the price of domestic soybean will be greatly reduced when the production of domestic soybean increase significantly. Therefore, we should do some in-depth analysis on the views and policies for domestic soybean industry.